STNG Scorpio Tankers

Tankers Product · LR2 / MR · 123 documents

Scorpio Tankers' 74-vessel product tanker fleet — 35 MR, 25 LR2 and 14 Handymax — should earn about $40,689 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $0.45 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN). Four fifths of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates Scorpio Tankers has disclosed; the rest are priced at 93% of the index, the share it has historically captured.

Last paid · 2026Q2

$0.45

2.2% annualised

$52,661/d earned

TTM $1.77 (2.2% trailing)

2026Q3 · our model

$0.45

2.2% annualised

$40,689/d modelled

PATTERN

low 81% booked · declared rate held flat

2026Q4 · our model

$0.45

2.2% annualised

$93,765/d modelled

declared rate held flat

Yields annualise each quarter ×4 at the last close, $81.45 (2026-10-16). Our model is not company guidance.

What will Scorpio Tankers pay for 2026Q3?

Company said

Scorpio Tankers has booked 81% of its 2026Q3 days (2026-09-03; by class on the right). It does not say what it will pay — turning its rates into a dividend is our job.

$35,972/d

booked average

—

no dividend given

Our model

Booked days at those rates, open days at 93% of spot; dividend by declared rate held flat.

$40,689/d

modelled

$0.45

low confidence · PATTERN

Booked vs market $/day

Class	Booked	At	Spot now
LR2 · time charters out of the pool	39.2%	$30,800	$282,502
spot · days booked · not modelled	46.2%	$64,900	—
MR · time charters out of the pool	3%	$28,000	$68,317
MR · bareboat charter out of the pool	2.8%	$12,986	$68,317
spot · days booked · not modelled	75%	$30,000	—
Handymax · time charters out of the pool	7.1%	$23,000	—
spot · days booked · not modelled	64.3%	$25,500	—

Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3

Model Your scenario

Set a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.

Latest rates

Class	Company earned	Booked 2026Q3	Market now	8 weeks
LR2 · 25	$52,6612026Q2 · fleet avg	$49,23985% of days	$282,5022026-10 median · 2 routes	+132%
MR · 35	$52,6612026Q2 · fleet avg	$29,33281% of days	$68,3172026-10 median · 2 routes	+136%
Handymax · 14	$52,6612026Q2 · fleet avg	$25,25271% of days	—no open $/day series

Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class — a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.

Your rates open days only — booked days stay at the booked rate

LR2 85% booked at $49,239 · 314 open days

$/d

MR 81% booked at $29,332 · 623 open days

$/d

Handymax 71% booked at $25,252 · 260 open days

$/d

2026Q3 P&L and cash

Model

Your scenario

Vessel-days, days stated

Net of off-hire and drydock: the issuer's guided off-hire.

6,305

By class

Class	Days	Model $/day	Yours $/day
LR2	2,151	63,625	63,625
MR	3,244	29,811	29,811
Handymax	910	25,252	25,252

Fleet TCE, $/day modelled

40,689

Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelled

Vessel-days × fleet TCE.

256.5

Vessel opex, $m assumed

2026Q2: $64.8m over 7,268 vessel-days, held per day.

(56.2)

G&A, $m assumed

2026Q2: $46.6m over 7,268 vessel-days, held per day.

(40.4)

EBITDA, $m assumed

159.9

Hire for chartered-in ships, $m

Not on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed).

—

Interest expense, $m assumed

2026Q2: $16.8m over 7,268 vessel-days, held per day.

(14.6)

Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated

2026Q2: $4.8m over 7,268 vessel-days, held per day (the issuer’s scheduled principal).

(4.2)

Drydock cost, $m

No separate drydock cash line on file; off-hire is in the vessel-day count above.

—

Cash break-even, $/day assumed

Σ cash costs above ÷ vessel-days.

18,300

Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day

22,389

Free cash flow to equity, $m assumed

Revenue − cash costs: the cash available for distribution.

141.2

Maintenance capex, $m

Not disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash.

—

Dividend policy pattern

No stated payout policy on file.

Dividend by declared rate held flat; it does not move with the rate, so your scenario leaves it unchanged.

Output	Model	Your scenario	Δ
Estimated DPS, $/share pattern	$0.45
Forward yield, run-rate %	2.2%
vs last declared ($0.45, 2026Q2)	+0%

Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS × 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $81.45 close on 2026-10-16.

This dividend is set by declared rate held flat, not by the rate — your scenario moves the cash line, not the DPS.

Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.

Dividend per share declared · model

Market context — rates, the dividend, and the price

Rates and dividend — benchmark, realized and declared

62%

2026Q2 earned $52,661/day market paid $85,419/day

Fleet-weighted benchmark Realized fleet TCEModelDeclared DPS

forecast →

$0k

$50k

$100k

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

Declared DPS, USD/share — solid: declared · dashed: model

$0.42

$0.45

2025Q3 rec 2025-11-14 · pay 2025-12-05 2025Q4 rec 2026-03-06 · pay 2026-03-20 2026Q1 rec 2026-05-29 · pay 2026-06-15 2026Q2 rec 2026-08-17 · pay 2026-08-31

A settled quarter carries two bars: the lighter one is the fleet-weighted benchmark — what the market paid for a fleet of this class mix — and the solid one is what this fleet actually earned. The gap between them is the share of the index this issuer captured. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate — see Dividend forecast.

The line is the declared dividend per share — dashed where it is the model's estimate. Model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Forward (our model — model quarter ×4): $1.80/yr · @ $81.45 (as of 2026-10-16) = 2.2% yield (forward, model) · Trailing TTM $1.77/yr = 2.2%

Fleet rate — what the market pays a fleet like this one

Latest $170,011/day at 2026-10-16 (+12.8% on the prior print), weighted 25×LR2 · 35×MR.

The thick line prices this fleet's own class mix at the market's rate each week; the pale lines are the class benchmarks behind it. Each class benchmark is a median across every route mapped to that class, not a single assessment. A laden-leg benchmark runs hotter than a fleet earns — ballast days, waiting time, TC-out legs and off-hire all dilute it — so this is market direction, not revenue. What this fleet actually captured is the panel above.

Price and the yield it implied

Latest: 2026-Q1 declared $0.45/share on 2026-05-05, 2.1% annualised against the $86.62 close that day.

The continuous line is the daily closing price in dollars — the raw close, not a dividend-adjusted one, which would back-adjust away the very payouts being measured. The second line carries 4 declared dividends and is marked nowhere else — each annualised ×4 and divided by the close on, or last before, the day it was declared. A quarter with no dividend has no mark. The segments between the marks connect them; they are not measured. This is what the share yielded at the time, not what those dividends would yield at today's price. Prices start 2025-08-29, so anything declared before then is not plotted.

How we got the number

How to read this page

Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it →

Where STNG departs from that

The market benchmark prices 60 of this fleet's 74 vessels — the classes it has an assessment for. The rate the fleet actually earned covers all of them, so the two are not measured over the same ships.
The forecast has not been scored against an outcome yet — there is no track record here to judge it by.
Weak OLS fit R²=0.47.
Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships × days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
LR2: index realized at 93% — this issuer captured 93% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-101%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index.
LR2: using issuer guidance 85% fixed @ $49,239/day — day-weighted across its charters: LR2 time charters out of the pool $30,800/day x 902 days; spot days booked $64,900/day x 1062 days.

What drives it — fleet TCE, 2026Q3

Expected fleet TCE

$40,689/d

85% STATED · 15% MODELLED

Days already fixed

81%

at disclosed rates

Index capture on open days

93%

historically captured

Earnings bridge — 2026Q2 → 2026Q3

Anchor DPS (2026Q2) $0.45

TCE rate change — fleet TCE $40,689 expected vs $52,661 at anchor (model rate sensitivity) −$0.02

Booked cover — issuer guidance targets a different quarter than the anchor — no same-vintage comparison TBD

Open cover (spot-exposed) — LR2 15% of days without booked cover · MR 19% of days without booked cover · Handymax 29% of days without booked cover — spot-exposed TBD

Expected DPS (2026Q3) $0.45

Dividend history & forecast accuracy

Upcoming

Quarter	Ex-date (est.)	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS
2026Q3 E	—	$0.45	—
2026Q4 E	—	$0.45	—

Period	DPS	Kind	Ex-date	Pay date	Source
2026-Q2	$0.45/share	regular	—	2026-08-31	as of 2026-03-20 declaration
paid 2026-03-20	$0.45/share	regular	—	2026-03-20	as of 2026-03-20 declaration
2026-Q1	$0.45/share	regular	—	2026-06-15	as of 2026-05-05 declaration
2025-Q4	$0.45/share	regular	—	2026-03-20	as of 2026-02-12 declaration
2025-Q3	$0.42/share	regular	—	2025-12-05	as of 2025-10-30 declaration
paid 2025-08-29	$0.40/share	regular	—	2025-08-29	as of 2025-08-29 declaration
2025-Q2	$0.40/share	regular	—	2025-08-29	as of 2025-03-21 declaration
paid 2025-03-21	$0.40/share	regular	—	2025-03-21	as of 2025-03-21 declaration

Older dividends (3 more)

Period	DPS	Kind	Ex-date	Pay date	Source
2025-Q1	$0.40/share	regular	—	2025-06-16	as of 2025-05-01 declaration
2024-Q4	$0.40/share	regular	—	2025-03-21	as of 2025-02-12 declaration
paid 2024-03-27	$0.40/share	regular	—	2024-03-27	as of 2024-03-27 declaration

DPS method: declared rate held flat.

Financials & fleet

Latest quarter 2026Q2 2 qtrs old

Fleet

Realized TCE

$52,661/d 2026Q2

Declared DPS

$0.45 2026Q2

TTM DPS

$1.77

Coverage

—

Revenue

$408.7M

Opex

$64.8M

Net income

$387.5M

14× handymax · 25× lr2 · 35× mr current

Fleet model — 2026Q3

Fleet model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Class	Ships	TC	Spot	% Fixed	Guided $/d	Spot $/d	Blended $/d	QTD rev $M	Modeled Q rev $M
LR2	25	0	25	85%	49,239	158,894	63,625	—	136.9
MR	35	0	35	81%	29,332	34,223	29,811	—	96.7
Handymax	14	—	—	71%	25,252	—	25,252	—	23.0
Total	74						40,689	—	256.5

Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with Gibson and route-basket spot medians and the company's own guidance for the open days.

Expected DPS

$0.45/share

Annualized

$1.80/yr

Revenue if rates hold

$256.5M

Confidence

LOW

Bear uses booked coverage only; Base adds open vessels at this issuer's realized share of the latest Gibson median; Bull reruns them at the same share of the recent 3-month peak index.

Declared $0.45 in each of the last 3 quarters — the forward figure is the rate itself, not a TCE-linked model. Coverage below shows how far modelled cash after debt service goes toward it.

Model gaps & assumptions

lr2: index realized at 93% — this issuer captured 93% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-101%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · lr2: using issuer guidance 85% fixed @ $49,239/day — day-weighted across its charters: LR2 time charters out of the pool $30,800/day x 902 days; spot days booked $64,900/day x 1062 days · mr: index realized at 93% — this issuer captured 93% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-101%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · mr: using issuer guidance 80% fixed @ $29,332/day — day-weighted across its charters: MR time charters out of the pool $28,000/day x 95 days; MR bareboat charter out of the pool $12,986/day x 91 days; spot days booked $30,000/day x 2416 days · handymax: guidance-only pricing (no market index for this class, owner ruling 2026-09-08) — issuer guidance 71% covered @ $25,252/day; the open 29% is unpriced and excluded from the mean · lr2: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $158,894/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · mr: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $34,223/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · estimate base 2025Q2 predates 2026Q2, the quarter before the 2026Q3 forecast · one-model DPS not used: fewer than 3 quarters of rate and dividend history, no break-even, or it does not explain the company's own dividends (R² < 0.5) · DPS is the declared rate: $0.450 in each of 3 quarters (2025Q4, 2026Q1, 2026Q2) — held flat, so it is not modelled from TCE

Profit statement highlights

Line	2026Q2	2026Q1	YoY Δ
Revenue	$408.7M	$312.9M	+77.5%
Opex	$64.8M	$68.8M	-5.7%
Net income	$387.5M	$216.3M	+427.2%

Full P&L grid — 6 quarters

Line item	2026Q2	2026Q1	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1
Revenue $M	408.7	312.9	252.7	241.4	230.2	214.0
Voyage expenses $M	—	—	—	—	—	—
Vessel opex $M	64.8	68.8	74.2	74.3	68.7	70.6
G&A $M	46.6	39.1	35.7	29.6	29.6	28.5
Depreciation $M	—	—	—	—	—	—
Interest expense, gross $M	16.8	—	—	—	—	—
Net income $M	387.5	216.3	128.1	84.5	73.5	58.2
Declared DPS	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.42	0.40	0.40

Profit statement – highlights SEC EDGAR company facts

Line	FY2015	FY2016	H1 2017	FY2017	H1 2018	FY2018	H1 2019	FY2019	H1 2020	FY2020	H1 2021	FY2021	H1 2022	FY2022	H1 2023	FY2023	H1 2024	FY2024	H1 2025	FY2025	YoY Δ
Revenue	755.7	522.7	241.2	512.7	298.2	585.0	346.6	704.3	600.4	915.9	273.6	540.8	579.1	1562.9	713.7	1341.2	772.0	1244.0	444.2	938.2	-24.6%
EBITDA / operating income	307.1	76.7	-34.7	-44.9	4.0	10.5	75.0	130.0	274.3	245.3	-40.0	-90.5	182.7	797.7	402.0	705.1	498.7	764.6	139.5	355.2	-53.5%
Operating expenses	448.6	446.0	275.9	557.7	294.2	574.5	271.6	574.4	326.1	670.6	313.6	631.3	396.4	765.2	311.7	636.1	273.3	479.3	304.7	583.0	+21.6%
Net result	217.7	-24.9	-79.8	-158.2	-100.7	-190.1	-15.2	-48.5	190.6	94.1	-115.2	-234.4	106.7	637.3	325.6	546.9	441.5	668.8	131.7	344.3	-48.5%
Declared DPS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Full P&L grid — 4 lines × 20 quarters

Line item	FY2015	FY2016	H1 2017	FY2017	H1 2018	FY2018	H1 2019	FY2019	H1 2020	FY2020	H1 2021	FY2021	H1 2022	FY2022	H1 2023	FY2023	H1 2024	FY2024	H1 2025	FY2025
Operating revenues	755.7	522.7	241.2	512.7	298.2	585.0	346.6	704.3	600.4	915.9	273.6	540.8	579.1	1562.9	713.7	1341.2	772.0	1244.0	444.2	938.2
Operating expenses	448.6	446.0	275.9	557.7	294.2	574.5	271.6	574.4	326.1	670.6	313.6	631.3	396.4	765.2	311.7	636.1	273.3	479.3	304.7	583.0
Operating income	307.1	76.7	-34.7	-44.9	4.0	10.5	75.0	130.0	274.3	245.3	-40.0	-90.5	182.7	797.7	402.0	705.1	498.7	764.6	139.5	355.2
Profit for the period	217.7	-24.9	-79.8	-158.2	-100.7	-190.1	-15.2	-48.5	190.6	94.1	-115.2	-234.4	106.7	637.3	325.6	546.9	441.5	668.8	131.7	344.3

Fleet exposure assets reviewed · 2026-07-20

Class	Ships	TC	Spot	Guided $/day	Qtr	Next-Q booked	Expected blend
LR2	25	—	—	60,815	2026Q2	—	—
MR	35	—	—	49,519	2026Q2	—	—
Handy	14	—	—	51,784	2026Q2	—	—

Guidance & sources

Issuer guidance — forward-looking

No current-quarter guidance on file.

Historical guidance (7 rows)

Period	Metric	Value	Coverage	As of	Source
2026Q3	Handymax pool days booked	$25,500	70%	2026-09-03	—
2026Q3	Handymax time charters out of the pool	$23,000	—	2026-09-03	—
2026Q3	LR2 pool days booked	$64,900	85%	2026-09-03	—
2026Q3	LR2 time charters out of the pool	$30,800	—	2026-09-03	—
2026Q3	MR bareboat charter out of the pool	$12,986	—	2026-09-03	—
2026Q3	MR pool days booked	$30,000	79%	2026-09-03	—
2026Q3	MR time charters out of the pool	$28,000	—	2026-09-03	—

Sources — press, filings & documents

Press & filings by quarter

Quarter	Report	Presentation	Dividend	Other
2026Q4	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K	—	—	—
2026Q3	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2026Q2	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2026Q1	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 20-F, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q4	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q3	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q2	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K	—	—	—
2025Q1	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 20-F, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q4	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K	—	—	—
2024Q3	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K	—	—	—
2024Q2	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K	—	—	—
2024Q1	6-K, 20-F, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K	—	—	—