NVGS Navigator Holdings
Gas Β· Handysize / Midsize / Ethylene / Small Β· 65 documents
Navigator Holdings' 54-vessel gas fleet β 41 Handysize, 5 Midsize, 5 Ethylene and 3 across 1 other class β should earn about $33,946 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $0.07 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN).
Yields annualise each quarter Γ4 at the last close, $21.33 (2026-10-16). Our model is not company guidance.
What will Navigator Holdings pay for 2026Q3?
Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3
Model Your scenarioSet a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our modelβs figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.
Latest rates
| Class | Company earned | Booked 2026Q3 | Market now | 8 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handysize Β· 41 | $33,9462026Q2 Β· fleet avg | βnone printed | βno open $/day series | |
| Midsize Β· 5 | $33,9462026Q2 Β· fleet avg | βnone printed | βno open $/day series | |
| Ethylene Β· 5 | $33,9462026Q2 Β· fleet avg | βnone printed | βno open $/day series | |
| Small Β· 3 | $33,9462026Q2 Β· fleet avg | βnone printed | βno open $/day series |
Company earned: the issuerβs own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class β a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.
Your rates every day is at your rate
2026Q3 P&L and cash
| Line | Model | Your scenario | Ξ | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vessel-days, days modelledShips on the fleet list Γ the quarter's calendar days for ethylene, handysize, midsize, small: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there. |
4,968 | 4,968 | |||||||||||||||||||||
By class
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fleet TCE, $/day assumed | 33,946 | 33,946 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue (TCE basis), $m assumedVessel-days Γ fleet TCE. |
168.6 | 168.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Vessel opex, $m assumed2026Q2: $47.1m over 4,968 vessel-days, held per day. |
(47.1) | (47.1) | |||||||||||||||||||||
G&A, $m assumed2026Q2: $11.3m over 4,968 vessel-days, held per day. |
(11.3) | (11.3) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA, $m assumed | 110.3 | 110.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Hire for chartered-in ships, $mNot on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed). |
β | β | |||||||||||||||||||||
Interest expense, $m assumed2026Q2: $13.3m over 4,968 vessel-days, held per day. |
(13.3) | (13.3) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated2026Q2: $35.4m over 4,968 vessel-days, held per day (the issuerβs scheduled principal). |
(35.4) | (35.4) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Drydock cost, $mNo separate drydock cash line on file. |
β | β | |||||||||||||||||||||
Cash break-even, $/day assumedΞ£ cash costs above Γ· vessel-days. |
21,572 | 21,572 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day | 12,374 | 12,374 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Free cash flow to equity, $m assumedRevenue β cash costs: the cash available for distribution. |
61.5 | 61.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Maintenance capex, $mNot disclosed as a cash line; not in the modelβs cash. |
β | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Dividend policy pattern
No stated payout policy on file.
Dividend by declared rate held flat; it does not move with the rate, so your scenario leaves it unchanged.
| Output | Model | Your scenario | Ξ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated DPS, $/share pattern | $0.07 | ||
| Forward yield, run-rate % | 1.3% | ||
| vs last declared ($0.07, 2026Q2) | +0% |
Yield annualises the quarterβs DPS Γ 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $21.33 close on 2026-10-16.
This dividend is set by declared rate held flat, not by the rate β your scenario moves the cash line, not the DPS.
Showing the modelβs own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.
Dividend per share declared Β· model
Market context β rates, the dividend, and the price
Rates and dividend β realized rate and declared
Bars are the fleet TCE this issuer reported. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate β see Dividend forecast.
The line is the declared dividend per share β dashed where it is the model's estimate. Model estimate β not issuer guidance.
Forward (our model β model quarter Γ4): $0.28/yr Β· @ $21.33 (as of 2026-10-16) = 1.3% yield (spot-exposure scenario) Β· Trailing TTM $0.28/yr = 1.3%
Price and the yield it implied
Latest: 2026-Q2 declared $0.07/share on 2026-08-04, 1.3% annualised against the $21.41 close that day.
The continuous line is the daily closing price in dollars β the raw close, not a dividend-adjusted one, which would back-adjust away the very payouts being measured. The second line carries 4 declared dividends and is marked nowhere else β each annualised ×4 and divided by the close on, or last before, the day it was declared. A quarter with no dividend has no mark. The segments between the marks connect them; they are not measured. This is what the share yielded at the time, not what those dividends would yield at today's price. Prices start 2025-09-22, so anything declared before then is not plotted.
How we got the number
How to read this page
Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it β
Where NVGS departs from that
- No market index covers this fleet's vessel types, so each is priced at the company's own last realized rate per calendar vessel-day (revenue divided by vessel-days), held flat β the revenue track record shows how that has done.
- Weak OLS fit RΒ²=0.29.
- Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships Γ days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
- HANDYSIZE: no index and no guidance β priced at the issuer's own last realized fleet rate $33,946/day (2026Q2, issuer_printed), held flat (owner ruling 2026-09-26).
- Midsize: no index and no guidance β priced at the issuer's own last realized fleet rate $33,946/day (2026Q2, issuer_printed), held flat (owner ruling 2026-09-26).
What drives it β fleet TCE, 2026Q3
Earnings bridge β 2026Q2 β 2026Q3
Dividend history & forecast accuracy
Upcoming
| Quarter | Ex-date (est.) | Forecast DPS | Actual DPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 E | β | $0.07 | β |
| 2026Q4 E | β | $0.07 | β |
| Period | DPS | Kind | Ex-date | Pay date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q2 | $0.07/share | regular | β | 2026-09-01 | as of 2026-08-04 declaration |
| 2026-Q1 | $0.07/share | regular | β | 2026-06-10 | as of 2026-05-06 declaration |
| 2025-Q4 | $0.07/share | regular | β | 2026-03-31 | as of 2026-03-12 declaration |
| 2025-Q3 | $0.07/share | regular | β | 2025-12-16 | as of 2025-11-04 declaration |
| 2025-Q2 | $0.05/share | regular | β | 2025-09-17 | as of 2025-08-12 declaration |
| 2025-Q1 | $0.05/share | regular | β | 2025-06-17 | as of 2025-05-14 declaration |
| 2024-Q4 | $0.05/share | regular | β | 2025-04-03 | as of 2025-03-12 declaration |
DPS method: declared rate held flat.
Financials & fleet
Latest quarter 2026Q2 2 qtrs old
5Γ ethylene Β· 41Γ handysize Β· 5Γ midsize Β· 3Γ small current
Revenue model track record model vs realized
Each quarter priced at the previous quarter's realized rate, held flat β the figure the model holds once that quarter is reported β against the rate the fleet actually realized. Average miss 6.7% over 5 backtested quarters.
| Quarter | Record | Model $/day | Realized $/day | Model rev $M | Realized rev $M | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | backtest | 30,476 | 28,216 | 160.9 | 148.9 | +8.0% |
| 2025Q3 | backtest | 28,216 | 30,966 | 148.0 | 162.4 | -8.9% |
| 2025Q4 | backtest | 30,966 | 30,647 | 162.4 | 160.7 | +1.0% |
| 2026Q1 | backtest | 30,647 | 29,684 | 151.7 | 146.9 | +3.2% |
| 2026Q2 | backtest | 29,684 | 33,946 | 145.9 | 166.8 | -12.6% |
Backtest rows apply today's rule to past quarters using only the prior quarters' reported rates; live rows are the forecast as frozen on the date shown. Revenue is rate Γ vessel-days, so a miss here is a rate miss.
Fleet model β 2026Q3
Fleet model estimate β not issuer guidance.
| Class | Ships | TC | Spot | % Fixed | Guided $/d | Spot $/d | Blended $/d | QTD rev $M | Modeled Q rev $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handysize | 41 | β | β | β | β | β | 33,946 | β | 128.0 |
| Midsize | 5 | β | β | β | β | β | 33,946 | β | 15.6 |
| Ethylene | 5 | β | β | β | β | β | 33,946 | β | 15.6 |
| Small | 3 | β | β | β | β | β | 33,946 | β | 9.4 |
| Total | 54 | 33,946 | β | 168.6 | |||||
Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with the company's own realized rates for the open days.
Bear uses booked coverage only; Base prices open vessels at the company's own last realized fleet rate β no market index covers this fleet, so there is no peak-index Bull case.
Declared $0.07 in each of the last 4 quarters β the forward figure is the rate itself, not a TCE-linked model. Coverage below shows how far modelled cash after debt service goes toward it.
Model gaps & assumptions
handysize: no index and no guidance β priced at the issuer's own last realized fleet rate $33,946/day (2026Q2, issuer's printed figure), held flat (owner ruling 2026-09-26) Β· midsize: no index and no guidance β priced at the issuer's own last realized fleet rate $33,946/day (2026Q2, issuer's printed figure), held flat (owner ruling 2026-09-26) Β· ethylene: no index and no guidance β priced at the issuer's own last realized fleet rate $33,946/day (2026Q2, issuer's printed figure), held flat (owner ruling 2026-09-26) Β· small: no index and no guidance β priced at the issuer's own last realized fleet rate $33,946/day (2026Q2, issuer's printed figure), held flat (owner ruling 2026-09-26) Β· one-model DPS not used: fewer than 3 quarters of rate and dividend history, no break-even, or it does not explain the company's own dividends (RΒ² < 0.5) Β· DPS is the declared rate: $0.070 in each of 4 quarters (2025Q3, 2025Q4, 2026Q1, 2026Q2) β held flat, so it is not modelled from TCE
Profit statement highlights
| Line | 2026Q2 | 2026Q1 | YoY Ξ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $167.9M | $140.6M | +29.5% |
| Opex | $47.1M | $45.8M | -0.6% |
| Net income | $53.0M | $35.5M | +147.0% |
Full P&L grid β 6 quarters
| Line item | 2026Q2 | 2026Q1 | 2025Q4 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue $M | 167.9 | 140.6 | 152.8 | 153.1 | 129.6 | 151.4 |
| Voyage expenses $M | 28.3 | 19.4 | 21.3 | 20.1 | 15.2 | 20.7 |
| Vessel opex $M | 47.1 | 45.8 | 47.6 | 49.3 | 47.4 | 47.0 |
| G&A $M | 11.3 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| Depreciation $M | β | β | β | β | β | β |
| Interest expense, gross $M | 13.3 | β | β | β | 15.1 | 12.7 |
| Net income $M | 53.0 | 35.5 | 18.5 | 33.2 | 21.5 | 27.0 |
| Declared DPS | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Profit statement β highlights SEC EDGAR company facts
| Line | FY2011 | FY2012 | 2013Q1 | H1 2013 | 2013Q4 (FY β 9M) | FY2013 | 2013Q2 | 2013Q3 | 2014Q1 | H1 2014 | 2014Q4 (FY β 9M) | FY2014 | 2014Q2 | 2014Q3 | H1 2015 | FY2015 | 2015Q2 | H1 2016 | FY2016 | 2016Q2 | H1 2017 | FY2017 | H1 2018 | FY2018 | 2018Q2 | H1 2019 | FY2019 | 2019Q2 | H1 2020 | FY2020 | 2020Q2 | H1 2021 | FY2021 | 2021Q2 | H1 2022 | FY2022 | 2022Q2 | H1 2023 | FY2023 | 2023Q2 | H1 2024 | FY2024 | 2024Q2 | H1 2025 | FY2025 | 2025Q2 | H1 2026 | 2026Q2 | YoY Ξ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 88.9 | 146.7 | β | β | β | 238.3 | β | β | β | β | β | 304.9 | β | β | β | 315.2 | β | β | 294.1 | β | 151.7 | 298.6 | 151.0 | 310.0 | 73.2 | 149.7 | 301.4 | 73.6 | 163.7 | 332.5 | 82.5 | 171.4 | 406.5 | 85.7 | 243.7 | 473.8 | 123.9 | 271.3 | 550.7 | 135.3 | 280.8 | 566.7 | 146.7 | 281.0 | 587.0 | 129.6 | 308.6 | 167.9 | +29.6% |
| EBITDA / operating income | 21.2 | 39.7 | 13.5 | 32.0 | 19.2 | 70.2 | 18.5 | 19.0 | 24.9 | 52.4 | 32.1 | 115.5 | 27.6 | 31.0 | 66.5 | 128.6 | 34.6 | 46.2 | 78.0 | 18.9 | 28.1 | 47.2 | 19.3 | 41.5 | 8.1 | 12.6 | 32.6 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 41.8 | 13.4 | 19.7 | -3.0 | 7.4 | 34.5 | 60.7 | 16.8 | 67.9 | 137.2 | 36.0 | 75.8 | 143.2 | 39.5 | 72.5 | 165.4 | 33.0 | 106.6 | 63.1 | +91.2% |
| Operating expenses | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β |
| Net result | 18.7 | 30.5 | 7.6 | 19.1 | 10.9 | 41.0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 16.9 | 36.5 | 24.3 | 84.5 | 19.7 | 23.7 | 50.5 | 98.1 | 27.4 | 30.5 | 44.6 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | -2.5 | -5.7 | -3.2 | -11.0 | -16.6 | -7.7 | -4.2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | -29.2 | 0.7 | 41.8 | 54.9 | 14.4 | 46.3 | 86.9 | 27.5 | 51.8 | 94.1 | 26.8 | 51.0 | 105.9 | 22.2 | 93.4 | 57.0 | +156.8% |
| Declared DPS | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β |
Full P&L grid β 4 lines Γ 48 quarters
| Line item | FY2011 | FY2012 | Q1 2013 | H1 2013 | Q4 2013 | FY2013 | Q2 2013 | Q3 2013 | Q1 2014 | H1 2014 | Q4 2014 | FY2014 | Q2 2014 | Q3 2014 | H1 2015 | FY2015 | Q2 2015 | H1 2016 | FY2016 | Q2 2016 | H1 2017 | FY2017 | H1 2018 | FY2018 | Q2 2018 | H1 2019 | FY2019 | Q2 2019 | H1 2020 | FY2020 | Q2 2020 | H1 2021 | FY2021 | Q2 2021 | H1 2022 | FY2022 | Q2 2022 | H1 2023 | FY2023 | Q2 2023 | H1 2024 | FY2024 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | FY2025 | Q2 2025 | H1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating revenues | 88.9 | 146.7 | β | β | β | 238.3 | β | β | β | β | β | 304.9 | β | β | β | 315.2 | β | β | 294.1 | β | 151.7 | 298.6 | 151.0 | 310.0 | 73.2 | 149.7 | 301.4 | 73.6 | 163.7 | 332.5 | 82.5 | 171.4 | 406.5 | 85.7 | 243.7 | 473.8 | 123.9 | 271.3 | 550.7 | 135.3 | 280.8 | 566.7 | 146.7 | 281.0 | 587.0 | 129.6 | 308.6 | 167.9 |
| Operating expenses | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β | β |
| Operating income | 21.2 | 39.7 | 13.5 | 32.0 | 19.2 | 70.2 | 18.5 | 19.0 | 24.9 | 52.4 | 32.1 | 115.5 | 27.6 | 31.0 | 66.5 | 128.6 | 34.6 | 46.2 | 78.0 | 18.9 | 28.1 | 47.2 | 19.3 | 41.5 | 8.1 | 12.6 | 32.6 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 41.8 | 13.4 | 19.7 | -3.0 | 7.4 | 34.5 | 60.7 | 16.8 | 67.9 | 137.2 | 36.0 | 75.8 | 143.2 | 39.5 | 72.5 | 165.4 | 33.0 | 106.6 | 63.1 |
| Profit for the period | 18.7 | 30.5 | 7.6 | 19.1 | 10.9 | 41.0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 16.9 | 36.5 | 24.3 | 84.5 | 19.7 | 23.7 | 50.5 | 98.1 | 27.4 | 30.5 | 44.6 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | -2.5 | -5.7 | -3.2 | -11.0 | -16.6 | -7.7 | -4.2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | -29.2 | 0.7 | 41.8 | 54.9 | 14.4 | 46.3 | 86.9 | 27.5 | 51.8 | 94.1 | 26.8 | 51.0 | 105.9 | 22.2 | 93.4 | 57.0 |
Realized fleet TCE
Realized fleet TCE versus benchmark: 6 points, 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-01; Realized fleet TCE latest 33,946.00.
Benchmark comparison will appear once issuer-printed benchmark data is available.
Guidance & sources
Sources β press, filings & documents
Press & filings by quarter
| Quarter | Report | Presentation | Dividend | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 6-K, 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2026Q3 | 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit | β | β | β |
| 2026Q2 | 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit | β | β | β |
| 2026Q1 | 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 20-F, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit | β | β | β |
| 2025Q4 | 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2025Q3 | 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit | β | β | β |
| 2025Q2 | 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, FORM 6-K, 6-K, FORM 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2025Q1 | 6-K, 20-F, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2024Q4 | 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2024Q3 | 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2024Q2 | 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, FORM 6-K, FORM 6-K, 6-K, 6-K | β | β | β |
| 2024Q1 | 20-F, 6-K | β | β | β |
Recent documents
- edgar 2026-10-16 6-K β Current Report (2026-10-16)
- edgar 2026-10-08 6-K β Current Report (2026-10-08)
- edgar 2026-08-04 6-K β Current Report (2026-08-04)
- edgar 2026-08-03 6-K β Current Report (2026-08-03)
- edgar 2026-08-03 6-K exhibit (2026-08-03) summary
- edgar 2026-07-14 6-K β Current Report (2026-07-14)
- edgar 2026-07-14 6-K exhibit (2026-07-14) summary
- edgar 2026-06-18 6-K β Current Report (2026-06-18)
- edgar 2026-06-18 6-K exhibit (2026-06-18) summary
- edgar 2026-06-15 6-K β Current Report (2026-06-15)
- edgar 2026-06-15 6-K exhibit (2026-06-15) summary
- edgar 2026-05-11 6-K β Current Report (2026-05-11)