NAT Nordic American Tankers

Tankers Crude · Suezmax · 44 documents

Nordic American Tankers' 17-vessel crude tanker fleet should earn about $71,147 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $0.30 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE), at a rate beyond the $63,000/d its dividend history covers. 75% of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates Nordic American Tankers has disclosed; the rest are priced at 66% of the index, the share it has historically captured.

Last paid · 2026Q2

$0.27

14.1% annualised

$63,000/d earned

TTM $0.79 (10.3% trailing) · +23% vs prior quarter

2026Q3 · our model

$0.30

15.4% annualised

$71,147/d modelled

PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE

low EPS $0.31 · 75% booked · beyond the $63,000/d its dividend history covers

2026Q4 · our model

$0.99

51.8% annualised

$228,914/d modelled

EPS $1.47 · beyond the $63,000/d its dividend history covers

At today’s spot · our model

—

withheld outside the $24,714–$63,000/d its dividend history covers

$175,655/d booked + open days at spot

market $540,621/d -6.9% vs prior print · $4,275/d payout floor · fleet-weighted 2026-10-16

Yields annualise each quarter ×4 at the last close, $7.66 (2026-10-16). Our model is not company guidance.

What will Nordic American Tankers pay for 2026Q3?

Company said

Nordic American Tankers has booked 75% of its 2026Q3 days (2026-08-27, source; by class on the right). It does not say what it will pay — turning its rates into a dividend is our job.

$54,000/d

booked average

est. $0.22

on booked days

Our model

Booked days at those rates, open days at 66% of spot; then Nordic American Tankers pays out 60% of the cash above its $4,275/d payout floor (own history, 6 quarters; payout floor from dividend history). It has paid from cash when rates ran below its $27,023/d cash costs. Track record ↓

$71,147/d

modelled

$0.30

low confidence · PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE

Your scenario

Booked days at the company’s rates, open days at the rate you set. Set the rates ↓

—

your rates

—

your rates

Booked vs market $/day

Class	Booked	At	Spot now
Fleet · applied to every class	75%	$54,000	—

Track record forecast vs paid

Quarter	Forecast	Paid	Miss
2026Q2	$0.19	$0.27	-31%
2026Q1	$0.18	$0.22	-17%

At 2026Q2’s actual $63,000/d, our model gives $0.26 against $0.27 declared (6 quarters, out-of-sample R² 0.880). Big misses came from forecasting the rate, not the payout.

Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3

Model Your scenario

Set a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.

Latest rates

Class	Company earned	Booked 2026Q3	Market now	8 weeks
Suezmax · 17	$63,0002026Q2 · fleet avg	$54,00075% of days	$540,6212026-10 median · 4 routes	+222%

Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class — a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.

Your rates open days only — booked days stay at the booked rate

Suezmax 75% booked at $54,000 · 391 open days

$/d

2026Q3 P&L and cash

Model

Your scenario

Vessel-days, days modelled

Ships on the fleet list × the quarter's calendar days for Suezmax: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there.

1,564

By class

Class	Days	Model $/day	Yours $/day
Suezmax	1,564	71,147	71,147

Fleet TCE, $/day modelled

71,147

Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelled

Vessel-days × fleet TCE.

111.3

Vessel opex, $m assumed

2026Q2: $15.7m over 1,564 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply. Source (2026Q2)

(15.7)

G&A, $m assumed

2026Q2: $9.6m over 1,564 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply. Source (2026Q2)

(9.6)

EBITDA, $m assumed

Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

86.0

Hire for chartered-in ships, $m

Not on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed).

—

Interest expense, $m assumed

2026Q2: $7.9m over 1,564 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply. Source (2026Q2)

(7.9)

Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated

2026Q4: $9.0m over 1,564 vessel-days, held per day (the issuer’s scheduled principal). Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

(9.0)

Drydock cost, $m

No separate drydock cash line on file.

—

At the payout floor, $m pattern

The rate below which this company’s dividends stop, from its own history. It sits below its own cash costs of $27,023/day: it has paid from cash when rates ran under them.

(6.7)

Payout floor, $/day pattern

The rate below which this company’s dividends stop, from its own history. It sits below its own cash costs of $27,023/day: it has paid from cash when rates ran under them.

4,275

Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day

66,872

Cash above the payout floor, $m modelled

Revenue − payout floor × vessel-days: what the dividend is paid from in this model, not net of the company's cash costs.

104.6

Maintenance capex, $m

Not disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash.

—

Dividend policy pattern

No stated payout policy on file.

It paid 60% of the cash above break-even over 2025Q1–2026Q2 (6 quarters); that share is applied to the cash line.

Output	Model	Your scenario	Δ
Estimated distributable cash, $m	62.5
Estimated DPS, $/share modelled	$0.30
Forward yield, run-rate %	15.4%
vs last declared ($0.27, 2026Q2)	+9%

Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS × 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $7.66 close on 2026-10-16.

Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.

Dividend per share declared · model · you

Market context — rates, the dividend, and the price

Rates and dividend — benchmark, realized and declared

74%

2026Q2 earned $63,000/day market paid $85,047/day

The earned figure includes $14.6m of loss-of-hire insurance recoveries on the Hormuz-stranded vessels — the issuer's own printed fleet TCE, and the numerator of the ratio above.

Fleet-weighted benchmark Realized fleet TCEModelDeclared DPS

forecast →

$0k

$150k

$300k

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

Declared DPS, USD/share — solid: declared · dashed: model · shaded: the range this model has been wrong by

$0.13

$0.17

$0.22

$0.27

$0.30

$0.99

A settled quarter carries two bars: the lighter one is the fleet-weighted benchmark — what the market paid for a fleet of this class mix — and the solid one is what this fleet actually earned. The gap between them is the share of the index this issuer captured. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate — see Dividend forecast.

The line is the declared dividend per share — dashed where it is the model's estimate. The shaded band is how wrong this model has actually been over its 2 scored quarters — the observed spread, not a symmetric guess around it, with a tick per observation so its width can be counted. Those quarters came in 31% and 17% below what was paid. Model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Forward (our model — model quarter ×4): $1.18/yr · @ $7.66 (as of 2026-10-16) = 15.4% yield (forward, model) · Trailing TTM $0.79/yr = 10.3%

DPS-vs-TCE fit R² 0.930 · 6 qtrs

Fit crosses zero at $4,275/d — the TCE below which this fit implies no payout

forecast accuracy →

Fleet rate — what the market pays a fleet like this one

Latest $540,621/day at 2026-10-16 (-6.9% on the prior print), weighted 17×SUEZMAX.

This fleet is one class, so its fleet-weighted rate and its class benchmark are the same series — the line is that class's blend. Each class benchmark is a median across every route mapped to that class, not a single assessment. A laden-leg benchmark runs hotter than a fleet earns — ballast days, waiting time, TC-out legs and off-hire all dilute it — so this is market direction, not revenue. What this fleet actually captured is the panel above.

How we got the number

How to read this page

Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it →

Where NAT departs from that

Rate 1.1x the highest it has earned ($63,000/d).
Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships × days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
SUEZMAX: index realized at 66% — this issuer captured 66% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 52%-74%; 5 on its fleet TCE, with no time-charter days on file to remove); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index.
SUEZMAX: using issuer guidance 75% fixed @ $54,000/day — a FLEET-wide figure applied to this class; the issuer did not split coverage by class.

What drives it — fleet TCE, 2026Q3

Expected fleet TCE

$71,147/d

75% STATED · 25% MODELLED

Days already fixed

75%

at disclosed rates

Index capture on open days

66%

historically captured

How we got to the DPS

Payout of cash above break-even PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE $0.30

Stated payout policy declined — the company publishes no payout policy this model can read

Earnings bridge — 2026Q2 → 2026Q3

Anchor DPS (2026Q2) $0.27

Booked cover — issuer guidance targets a different quarter than the anchor — no same-vintage comparison TBD

Open cover (spot-exposed) — Suezmax 25% of days without booked cover — spot-exposed TBD

Expected DPS (2026Q3) $0.30

Dividend history & forecast accuracy

Hit rate

Avg error

23.9%

Quarters tracked

Fit crosses zero

$4,275/day

Fit

6 qtrs · R² 0.930

Upcoming

Quarter	Ex-date (est.)	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS
2026Q3 E	—	$0.30	—
2026Q4 E	—	$0.99	—

Quarter	Ex-date	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS	Error
2026Q2	—	$0.19	$0.27	-31.2%
2026Q1	—	$0.18	$0.22	-16.6%

DPS method: payout of cash above break-even.

Financials & fleet

Latest quarter 2026Q2 2 qtrs old

Fleet

Realized TCE

$63,000/d 2026Q2

Declared DPS

$0.27 2026Q2

TTM DPS

$0.79

Coverage

—

Revenue

$104.7M

Opex

$15.7M

Net income

$68.3M

17× suezmax current

Fleet model — 2026Q3

Fleet model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Class	Ships	TC	Spot	% Fixed	Guided $/d	Spot $/d	Blended $/d	QTD rev $M	Modeled Q rev $M
Suezmax	17	0	17	75%	54,000	185,993	71,147	—	111.3
Total	17						71,147	—	111.3

Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with Gibson and route-basket spot medians for the open days.

Bear — booked only

$63.3M rev

DPS $0.16

Base — index

$111.3M rev

DPS $0.30

Bull — recent peak

$294.1M rev

DPS $0.81

Expected DPS

$0.30/share

Annualized

$1.18/yr

Revenue if rates hold

$111.3M

Confidence

LOW 23.9% err

Bear uses booked coverage only; Base adds open vessels at this issuer's realized share of the latest Gibson median; Bull reruns them at the same share of the recent 3-month peak index.

Model gaps & assumptions

suezmax: index realized at 66% — this issuer captured 66% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 52%-74%; 5 on its fleet TCE, with no time-charter days on file to remove); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · suezmax: using issuer guidance 75% fixed @ $54,000/day — a FLEET-wide figure applied to this class; the issuer did not split coverage by class · suezmax: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $185,993/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · DPS = 60% (own history) of cash above the $4,275/day payout floor (dividend history) over 1,564 vessel-days · its dividends stop at $4,275/day, below its own cash costs of $27,023/day: it has paid from cash when rates ran under its costs, so the floor is its payout behaviour, not a cash break-even · one-model DPS extrapolated: TCE $71,147/day is 13% outside the $24,714-$63,000/day its dividend history covers — costs are per day, so the dividend still rises with the rate, but the payout share is untested out there

Forecast accuracy — fleet TCE

The model's fleet TCE for each quarter — the fleet-mix-weighted Gibson class benchmark, one quantity per fleet, never a shared class rate — scored against the TCE the company went on to report. Error is model minus reported, as a share of reported — positive means the model was too high.

Quarters scored

Avg abs. error

55.9%

Quarter	Model TCE	Reported TCE	Error
2026Q2	$85,047/day	$63,000/day	+35.0%
2026Q1	$91,597/day	$47,600/day	+92.4%
2025Q4	$63,966/day	$35,000/day	+82.8%
2025Q3	$41,706/day	$27,490/day	+51.7%
2025Q2	$36,971/day	$26,880/day	+37.5%
2025Q1	$33,564/day	$24,714/day	+35.8%

Profit statement highlights

Line	2026Q2	2026Q1	YoY Δ
Revenue	$104.7M	$106.5M	+57.0%
Opex	$15.7M	$15.9M	-14.7%
Net income	$68.3M	$46.3M	n/m

Full P&L grid — 6 quarters

Line item	2026Q2	2026Q1	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1
Revenue $M	104.7	106.5	85.9	75.0	66.7	64.8
Voyage expenses $M	25.4	28.9	27.1	29.3	26.6	26.8
Vessel opex $M	15.7	15.9	15.5	16.5	18.4	16.5
G&A $M	9.6	9.3	8.6	7.0	6.4	6.8
Depreciation $M	12.8	14.0	14.2	15.3	15.0	13.2
Interest expense, gross $M	—	—	—	—	—	7.4
Net income $M	68.3	46.3	11.7	−2.8	−0.9	4.2
Declared DPS	0.27	0.22	0.17	0.13	0.10	0.07

Profit statement – highlights SEC EDGAR company facts

Line	FY2008	FY2009	2010Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2010	2011Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2011	H1 2012	FY2012	H1 2013	FY2013	FY2014	H1 2015	FY2015	H1 2016	2016Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2016	2017Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2017	H1 2018	2018Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2018	H1 2019	FY2019	H1 2020	FY2020	H1 2021	FY2021	H1 2022	FY2022	H1 2023	FY2023	H1 2024	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	357.5	72.5	297.1	140.0	86.1	289.0	154.4	317.2	254.7	354.6	100.4	191.1	124.2	339.3	220.5	391.7	193.1	349.7	291.7	-16.6%
EBITDA / operating income	121.3	2.4	-12.4	0.8	-17.9	-71.2	-15.9	-67.9	-58.2	-93.6	-4.8	64.6	128.1	51.2	4.3	53.3	-143.6	-175.7	-28.7	5.4	-38.6	13.4	32.0	105.3	81.2	-40.1	-144.5	-19.0	41.9	88.8	127.9	52.3	77.3	46.3	-40.1%
Operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net result	118.8	1.0	-12.8	-0.8	-17.7	-72.3	-17.3	-73.2	-64.1	-105.4	-13.2	58.6	114.6	42.3	-39.2	-4.5	-151.4	-205.0	-46.9	-10.5	-95.3	-9.3	-10.4	88.7	50.0	-53.7	-171.3	-30.9	15.1	73.7	98.7	36.7	46.6	12.3	-73.6%
Declared DPS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Full P&L grid — 4 lines × 34 quarters

Line item	FY2008	FY2009	Q4 2010	FY2010	Q4 2011	FY2011	H1 2012	FY2012	H1 2013	FY2013	FY2014	H1 2015	FY2015	H1 2016	Q4 2016	FY2016	Q4 2017	FY2017	H1 2018	Q4 2018	FY2018	H1 2019	FY2019	H1 2020	FY2020	H1 2021	FY2021	H1 2022	FY2022	H1 2023	FY2023	H1 2024	FY2024	FY2025
Operating revenues	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	357.5	72.5	297.1	140.0	86.1	289.0	154.4	317.2	254.7	354.6	100.4	191.1	124.2	339.3	220.5	391.7	193.1	349.7	291.7
Operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	121.3	2.4	-12.4	0.8	-17.9	-71.2	-15.9	-67.9	-58.2	-93.6	-4.8	64.6	128.1	51.2	4.3	53.3	-143.6	-175.7	-28.7	5.4	-38.6	13.4	32.0	105.3	81.2	-40.1	-144.5	-19.0	41.9	88.8	127.9	52.3	77.3	46.3
Profit for the period	118.8	1.0	-12.8	-0.8	-17.7	-72.3	-17.3	-73.2	-64.1	-105.4	-13.2	58.6	114.6	42.3	-39.2	-4.5	-151.4	-205.0	-46.9	-10.5	-95.3	-9.3	-10.4	88.7	50.0	-53.7	-171.3	-30.9	15.1	73.7	98.7	36.7	46.6	12.3

Fleet exposure assets reviewed · 2026-03-31

Class	Ships	TC	Spot	Mix	Guided $/day	Qtr	Next-Q booked	Expected blend
Suezmax	17	—	—		—	—	68,000	—

Guidance & sources

Issuer guidance — forward-looking

No current-quarter guidance on file.

Historical guidance (2 rows)

Period	Metric	Value	Coverage	As of	Source
2026Q2	Fleet booked TCE (guided)	$68,000	90.0%	2026-08-27	print
2026Q3	Fleet booked TCE (guided)	$54,000	75.0%	2026-08-27	print

Sources — press, filings & documents

Press & filings by quarter

Quarter	Report	Presentation	Dividend	Other
2026Q4	—	—	—	Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) - The …
2026Q3	6-K, 6-K exhibit, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Repo…, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – 2026…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – the …, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Exce…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – An o…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Exce…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Herb…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Our …
2026Q2	6-K, 20-F	—	Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Repo…	Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Vice…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Foun…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Alex…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – the …, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Rece…, Nordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE: NAT) – Chao…
2026Q1	6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q4	6-K, 6-K	—	—	—
2025Q3	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q2	6-K, 20-F	—	—	—
2025Q1	6-K	—	—	—
2024Q4	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q3	6-K, 6-K, 6-K	—	—	—
2024Q2	6-K, 20-F	—	—	—
2024Q1	6-K	—	—	—