BWLPG.OL BW LPG
Gas · VLGC · 106 documents
BW LPG's 47-vessel gas fleet should earn about $95,876 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $1.31 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE), at a rate beyond the $74,000/d its dividend history covers. 92% of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates BW LPG has disclosed.
Yields annualise each quarter ×4 at the last close, $24.91 (2026-10-19). Our model is not company guidance.
What will BW LPG pay for 2026Q3?
Booked vs market $/day
| Class | Booked | At | Spot now |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLGC | 92% | $88,000 | — |
Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3
Model Your scenarioSet a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.
Latest rates
| Class | Company earned | Booked 2026Q3 | Market now | 8 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlgc · 47 | $74,0002026Q2 · fleet avg | $88,00092% of days | —no open $/day series |
Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class — a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.
Your rates open days only — booked days stay at the booked rate
2026Q3 P&L and cash
| Line | Model | Your scenario | Δ | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vessel-days, days modelledShips on the fleet list × the quarter's calendar days for vlgc: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there. |
4,324 | 4,324 | |||||||||
By class
| |||||||||||
| Fleet TCE, $/day modelled | 95,876 | 95,876 | |||||||||
Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelledVessel-days × fleet TCE. |
414.6 | 414.6 | |||||||||
Vessel opex, $m assumed2025Q4: $33.0m over 4,600 vessel-days, held per day. |
(31.0) | (31.0) | |||||||||
G&A, $m assumed2025Q4: $19.2m over 4,600 vessel-days, held per day. |
(18.0) | (18.0) | |||||||||
| EBITDA, $m assumed | 365.5 | 365.5 | |||||||||
Hire for chartered-in ships, $mNot on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed). |
— | — | |||||||||
Interest expense, $m assumed2026Q2: $10.2m over 4,416 vessel-days, held per day. |
(10.0) | (10.0) | |||||||||
Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated2026Q4: $50.7m over 4,324 vessel-days, held per day (the issuer’s scheduled principal). |
(50.7) | (50.7) | |||||||||
Drydock cost, $mNo separate drydock cash line on file. |
— | — | |||||||||
Cash break-even, $/day assumedΣ cash costs above ÷ vessel-days. |
25,374 | 25,374 | |||||||||
| Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day | 70,502 | 70,502 | |||||||||
Free cash flow to equity, $m assumedRevenue − cash costs: the cash available for distribution. |
304.9 | 304.9 | |||||||||
Maintenance capex, $mNot disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash. |
— | ||||||||||
Dividend policy pattern
No stated payout policy on file.
It paid $0.004 per share for every $1m above break-even over 2025Q2–2026Q2; no share count is on file, so the percentage is not shown.
| Output | Model | Your scenario | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated DPS, $/share modelled | $1.31 | ||
| Forward yield, run-rate % | 21.1% | ||
| vs last declared ($0.95, 2026Q2) | +38% |
Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS × 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $24.91 close on 2026-10-19.
Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.
Dividend per share declared · model · you
Market context — rates, the dividend, and the price
Rates and dividend — realized rate and declared
Bars are the fleet TCE this issuer reported. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate — see Dividend forecast.
The line is the declared dividend per share — dashed where it is the model's estimate. Model estimate — not issuer guidance.
Forward (our model — model quarter ×4): $5.25/yr · @ $24.91 (as of 2026-10-19) = 21.1% yield (forward, model) · Trailing TTM $2.59/yr = 10.4%
Price and the yield it implied
Latest: 2026-Q2 declared $0.95/share on 2026-08-28, 15.7% annualised against the $24.14 close that day.
The continuous line is the daily closing price in dollars — the raw close, not a dividend-adjusted one, which would back-adjust away the very payouts being measured. The second line carries 4 declared dividends and is marked nowhere else — each annualised ×4 and divided by the close on, or last before, the day it was declared. A quarter with no dividend has no mark. The segments between the marks connect them; they are not measured. This is what the share yielded at the time, not what those dividends would yield at today's price. Prices start 2025-08-29, so anything declared before then is not plotted.
How we got the number
How to read this page
Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it →
Where BWLPG.OL departs from that
- No market index covers this fleet's vessel types, so each is priced at the company's own last realized rate per calendar vessel-day (revenue divided by vessel-days), held flat — the revenue track record shows how that has done.
- Rate 1.3x the highest it has earned ($74,000/d).
- Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships × days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
- Vlgc: open days at the full Fearnleys spot rate — no closed quarter yet to measure how much of it this issuer captures.
- Vlgc: using issuer guidance 92% fixed @ $88,000/day.
What drives it — fleet TCE, 2026Q3
Earnings bridge — 2026Q2 → 2026Q3
Dividend history & forecast accuracy
Upcoming
| Quarter | Ex-date (est.) | Forecast DPS | Actual DPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 E | — | $1.31 | — |
| 2026Q4 E | — | $2.37 | — |
| Period | DPS | Kind | Ex-date | Pay date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q2 | $0.95/share | regular | — | — | as of 2026-08-28 declaration |
| 2026-Q1 | $0.67/share | regular | — | — | as of 2026-06-02 declaration |
| 2025-Q4 | $0.57/share | regular | — | — | as of 2026-03-03 declaration |
| 2025-Q3 | $0.40/share | regular | — | — | as of 2025-12-02 declaration |
| 2025-Q2 | $0.22/share | regular | — | — | as of 2025-08-26 declaration |
DPS method: payout of cash above break-even.
Financials & fleet
Latest quarter 2026Q2 2 qtrs old
47× vlgc 2026Q3
Revenue model track record model vs realized
Each quarter priced at the previous quarter's realized rate, held flat — the figure the model holds once that quarter is reported — against the rate the fleet actually realized. Average miss 15.2% over 4 backtested quarters.
| Quarter | Record | Model $/day | Realized $/day | Model rev $M | Realized rev $M | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | backtest | 38,850 | 51,280 | 185.9 | 245.3 | -24.2% |
| 2025Q4 | backtest | 51,280 | 50,270 | 235.9 | 231.2 | +2.0% |
| 2026Q1 | backtest | 50,270 | 55,500 | 221.7 | 244.8 | -9.4% |
| 2026Q2 | backtest | 55,500 | 74,000 | 242.4 | 323.2 | -25.0% |
Backtest rows apply today's rule to past quarters using only the prior quarters' reported rates; live rows are the forecast as frozen on the date shown. Revenue is rate × vessel-days, so a miss here is a rate miss.
Fleet model — 2026Q3
Fleet model estimate — not issuer guidance.
| Class | Ships | TC | Spot | % Fixed | Guided $/d | Spot $/d | Blended $/d | QTD rev $M | Modeled Q rev $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlgc | 47 | — | — | 92% | 88,000 | 186,448 | 95,876 | — | 414.6 |
| Total | 47 | 95,876 | — | 414.6 | |||||
Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with Gibson and route-basket spot medians for the open days.
Bear uses booked coverage only; Base prices open vessels at the company's own last realized fleet rate — no market index covers this fleet, so there is no peak-index Bull case.
Model gaps & assumptions
vlgc: open days at the full Fearnleys spot rate — no closed quarter yet to measure how much of it this issuer captures · vlgc: using issuer guidance 92% fixed @ $88,000/day · vlgc: open days priced at Fearnleys VLGC spot, 2026Q3 — mean of the quarter's monthly medians, 2 of 3 months on file (ended quarter; owner 2026-10-20), $186,448/day · DPS = a per-share share (own history) of cash above the $25,374/day break-even (cost lines) over 4,324 vessel-days · one-model DPS extrapolated: TCE $95,876/day is 30% outside the $38,850-$74,000/day its dividend history covers — costs are per day, so the dividend still rises with the rate, but the payout share is untested out there
Profit statement highlights
| Line | 2026Q2 | 2026Q1 | YoY Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — |
| Opex | — | — | — |
| Net income | $138.0M | $187.0M | +218.0% |
reconciliation: insufficient data for an earnings bridge (2026Q2) earnings bridge incomplete — treat income-derived figures as provisional
Full P&L grid — 5 quarters
| Line item | 2026Q2 | 2026Q1 | 2025Q4 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue $M | — | — | 258.2 | 280.0 | 230.5 |
| Voyage expenses $M | — | — | 79.5 | 86.5 | 89.3 |
| Vessel opex $M | — | — | 33.0 | 31.6 | 32.0 |
| G&A $M | — | — | 19.2 | 19.3 | 17.1 |
| Depreciation $M | — | — | 64.4 | 65.5 | 62.6 |
| Interest expense, gross $M | — | — | — | — | 12.6 |
| Net income $M | 138.0 | 187.0 | 122.9 | 56.8 | 43.4 |
| Declared DPS | 0.95 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.22 |
Cash break-even & opex per fleet
| Vessel class | Opex/day | Cash break-even $/day |
|---|---|---|
| VLGC | 9,000 | — |
| Owned | — | 18,500 |
| Total fleet | — | 20,200 |
| All-in | — | 23,400 |
Realized fleet TCE
Realized fleet TCE versus benchmark: 5 points, 2025-04-01 to 2026-04-01; Realized fleet TCE latest 74,000.00.
Benchmark comparison will appear once issuer-printed benchmark data is available.
Guidance & sources
Issuer guidance — forward-looking
No current-quarter guidance on file.
Sources — press, filings & documents
Press & filings by quarter
Recent documents
- mfn 2026-10-20T09:30:06 BWLPG: BW LPG Limited announces sale of BW Loyalty (2026-10-20)
- mfn 2026-10-20T09:30:00 BW LPG Limited announces sale of BW Loyalty (2026-10-20)
- newsweb 2026-10-20T07:30:06Z BW LPG Limited announces sale of BW Loyalty (2026-10-20)
- mfn 2026-10-19T07:00:05 BWLPG: BW LPG Limited Update on BW LPG s Product Services Q3 2026 Segment Performance (2026-10-19)
- mfn 2026-10-19T07:00:00 BW LPG Limited – Update on BW LPG’s Product Services Q3 2026 Segment Performance (2026-10-19)
- newsweb 2026-10-19T05:00:05Z BW LPG Limited Update on BW LPG s Product Services Q3 2026 Segment Performance (2026-10-19)
- mfn 2026-09-07T07:00:05 BWLPG: BW LPG Limited Ex-dividend on the Oslo Stock Exchange today (2026-09-07) dividend
- mfn 2026-09-07T07:00:00 BW LPG Limited – Ex-dividend on the Oslo Stock Exchange today (2026-09-07) dividend
- newsweb 2026-09-07T05:00:05Z BW LPG Limited Ex-dividend on the Oslo Stock Exchange today (2026-09-07)
- mfn 2026-09-02T07:00:00 BW LPG successfully places a USD 300 million offering of senior unsecured convertible bonds (2026-09-02) pdf
- newsweb 2026-09-02T05:00:06Z BW LPG SUCCESSFULLY PLACES A USD 300 MILLION OFFERING OF SENIOR UNSECURED CONVERTIBLE BONDS (2026-09-02)
- mfn 2026-09-01T16:45:00 BW LPG Launches Approximately USD 300 Million Senior Unsecured Convertible Bond Offering (2026-09-01) pdf